Disintegration and Coordination of Forecast Parameters of Socio-Economic Development and the Fuel and Energy Balance of the Region

The scope of strategic planning documents for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the procedure for their development and coordination on interregional and federal levels, the requirements for their content and conjunction with other long- and medium-term territorial programs are now approved by statute. The article presents the theoretical and methodological problems of detailing and interrelation of the region’s socio-economic development scenarios with the forecast parameters of regional energy consumption based on the fuel and energy balance under conditions of incomplete retrospective information. This situation is typical of the market environment, and some restrictions on access to statistical data are irremovable. This fact reduces the opportunity to apply formal and rigorous evaluation methods and the objectivity level of not only the forecast indicators, but also of the current ones. The coordination of these documents is methodologically and practically relevant due to the relative isolation of their formation process, a different level of detailing of the forecast scenarios, and a lack of the required information. The author uses the energy saving and energy efficiency measurement technique that is based on the structural comparison of performance, current and estimated fuel and energy balances, consistent with the region’s socio-economic development forecast. The author is also concerned with the development of this technique for the purpose of a comparative regional energy consumption analysis in retrospective and predictive periods. Since 2007, the author has been involved in practical calculations within the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Energy, Housing and Utilities of the Sverdlovsk Region. The article describes methodological characteristics of the author’s approaches to the development of variants of the fuel and energy balance, taking into account maintaining the official scenarios of socio-economic development of the region, the errors and the incompleteness of statistical data, and the regulatory requirements pertaining to the quality of forecasts

Energy problems of the rational use of the economic potential of the region

Analysis of problems of the social-economic development of the region, the assessment of the regional economy from the position of the full and rational use of its economic potential supposes developing an appropriate system of special indices, creating tools for their quantitative characteristics. Economic resources as basic constraints for regional economic development are of paramount importance. It is known that these are non-renewable natural, in particular, fuel and energy resources. State authorities at a federal and regional level play an essential role in the regulation of competitive access to energy resources in Russia. The using of balance sheet methods for analysing and comparing different ways of economic development of the areas, the corresponding demand for fuel and energy resources, regulating the export and import of fuel and energy resources, assessing the impact of energy efficiency programs and energy efficiency in the power settings are provided at the legislative level. The paper describes some results and conclusions derived from studies using different approaches to forming a regional energy balance model based on the data of the Sverdlovsk region. © 2014 WIT Press.International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering;International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning;WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environmen

Disintegration and Coordination of Forecast Parameters of Socio-Economic Development and the Fuel and Energy Balance of the Region

The scope of strategic planning documents for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the procedure for their development and coordination on interregional and federal levels, the requirements for their content and conjunction with other long- and medium-term territorial programs are now approved by statute. The article presents the theoretical and methodological problems of detailing and interrelation of the region’s socio-economic development scenarios with the forecast parameters of regional energy consumption based on the fuel and energy balance under conditions of incomplete retrospective information. This situation is typical of the market environment, and some restrictions on access to statistical data are irremovable. This fact reduces the opportunity to apply formal and rigorous evaluation methods and the objectivity level of not only the forecast indicators, but also of the current ones. The coordination of these documents is methodologically and practically relevant due to the relative isolation of their formation process, a different level of detailing of the forecast scenarios, and a lack of the required information. The author uses the energy saving and energy efficiency measurement technique that is based on the structural comparison of performance, current and estimated fuel and energy balances, consistent with the region’s socio-economic development forecast. The author is also concerned with the development of this technique for the purpose of a comparative regional energy consumption analysis in retrospective and predictive periods. Since 2007, the author has been involved in practical calculations within the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Energy, Housing and Utilities of the Sverdlovsk Region. The article describes methodological characteristics of the author’s approaches to the development of variants of the fuel and energy balance, taking into account maintaining the official scenarios of socio-economic development of the region, the errors and the incompleteness of statistical data, and the regulatory requirements pertaining to the quality of forecasts

Information and simulation model for complex regional transport

The main difficulties related to the economic study of traffic problems are caused by the large number of interrelated factors, hierarchical and competing goals of economic subjects, social and environmental problems of the territory, the degree of administrative independence of its individual parts, as well as the importance of regional economy within the country. The application of rigorous mathematical tools to assess trends in the development of transport infrastructure in these conditions is very limited and is usually reduced to the justification of a few scenarios. The paper offers specific methodological approaches, analytical apparatus with a number of the analyzed conditions and factors, a logical basis for the formation of scenarios in the design of transport systems, including the railway infrastructure of the region. The novelty of the approach used is a combination of accounting features of the territory from the perspective of mineral resources development, and quantification of long-term needs in the freight made on the balance calculations basis. © 2015 WIT Press

Imitation forecast of railway system operation in a macroregion

The article describes an analytical and information system that was used for forecasting the operation parameters of the railway system in a macroregion of Russia - the Far North. Its economy is focused on the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, metal production, construction materials, and generate large volumes of exports and inter-regional cargo flows. The region covers an expansive territory and is characterized by harsh weather, an extreme environment, and uneven development of the transportation network. Research into the transportation issues of economic development in such areas presents a challenging task because the region is unique, statistical data are incomplete and classified; there is a hierarchy of businesses and organizations operating in the region that have their own goals and objectives and compete against its other; the region is plagued with social and environmental problems and a lack of administrative integration between individual districts. Using rigorous mathematical tools for assessing transportation infrastructure projects under such conditions is only limited to finding solutions to stand-alone problems and scenario comparison. A model of the applied system that is outlined in the article makes it possible to analyze specific projects of regional railway system development that take into account strategic priorities and goals of the state, social and economic development problems experienced by the neighboring regions, the oil and gas sector and major employers, as well as corporate goals of the sustainable development of railway companies. The application of the model over an extended period of time showed that the analysis of the structure of cargo flows and customers bound to junctions of the transportation network makes it possible to suggest what aspects of the railway infrastructure should be reorganized in line with the development dynamics of economic entities that consume transportation services. The study is built upon a number of projects that were implemented in the north of Tyumen Region and the Yamal- Nenets and Khanty-Mansi autonomous areas of Russia. © 2018 WIT Press.ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract № 02.A03.21.0006

Optical spectroscopy of complex open 4dd-shell ions Sn7+^{7+}-Sn10+^{10+}

We analyze the complex level structure of ions with many-valence-electron open [Kr] 4$d^\textrm{m}$ sub-shells ($\textrm{m}$=7-4) with ab initio calculations based on configuration-interaction many-body perturbation theory (CI+MBPT). Charge-state-resolved optical and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectra of Sn$^{7+}$-Sn$^{10+}$ ions were obtained using an electron beam ion trap. Semi-empirical spectral fits carried out with the orthogonal parameters technique and Cowan code calculations lead to 90 identifications of magnetic-dipole transitions and the determination of 79 energy ground-configuration levels, questioning some earlier EUV-line assignments. Our results, the most complete data set available to date for these ground configurations, confirm the ab initio predictive power of CI+MBPT calculations for the these complex electronic systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Tools for Sustainable Development of Regional Energy Systems

Актуальность темы исследования определяется необходимостью своевременного учета изменений в структуре топливно-энергетического баланса промышленного региона, в уровне доступности привозных топливно-энергетических ресурсов, что особенно актуально для энергокритичных территорий. Происходящие структурные сдвиги в системах потребления энергии в совокупности с растущей неопределенностью на энергетических рынках предопределяют необходимость разработки инструментария, способствующего повышению устойчивости развития региональной энергетики. С целью совершенствования теоретического и методологического базиса данной проблематики уточнен понятийный аппарат: сформулированы отличия между устойчивым функционированием и устойчивым развитием энергетики, определены факторы его региональной дифференциации и формы проявления энергетического кризиса. Определены недостатки существующих методик прогнозирования спроса на электроэнергию как основы энергетического планирования. Особое внимание уделено факторам качества стратегического планирования в регионе, в частности используемых статистических данных и документов. На основе анализа современной методологии интегрированного планирования ресурсов, авторского опыта разработки прогнозных топливно-энергетического балансов региона, оценки отраслевых показателей энергоэффективности территориальной экономики и спроса на энергию предложена модель прогнозно-аналитического обоснования программ развития региональной энергетики, позволяющая существенно повысить информационную надежность их реализации. В части организационных инструментов поддержки устойчивого развития разработаны схема управления региональной энергетикой и мотивационный механизм привлечения территориальных энергокомпаний к работе по повышению энергоэффективности в секторе потребления, развития конкуренции в региональном контуре и привлечения инвестиций в процессы модернизации основных фондов. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в рекомендациях и инструментах, позволяющих корректировать энергетическую политику региона на основе координации и согласования прогнозных параметров для различных участников процесса энергоснабжения.Nowadays, it is relevant to consider changes in the structure of the fuel and energy balance of industrial regions and the availability of imported fuel and energy resources, especially in the areas that lack energy sources. The ongoing structural shifts in energy consumption systems and the growing uncertainty in energy markets encourage the development of tools for improving the sustainable development of regional energy systems. To refine the theoretical and methodological basis of the study, we defined its conceptual framework, described the differences between sustainable functioning and development of the energy sector and determined the factors of its regional differentiation and manifestations of the energy crisis. Further, we identified the shortcomings of the existing methods for forecasting the demand for electricity. We paid special attention to quality factors of strategic planning in the region, in particular, the used statistics and documents. Based on the analysis of integrated resource planning (IRP) methodology, our experience in forecasting fuel and energy balances, assessment of sectoral indicators of energy efficiency and energy demand in the region, we proposed a model for predictive and analytical justification of regional programmes for energy development. Such a model significantly increases the information reliability of these programmes’ implementation. Considering organisational tools to support sustainable development, we developed a regional energy management scheme and a mechanism stimulating local energy companies to improve energy efficiency in the consumption sector, enhance regional competition and attract investments in the renewal of fixed assets. The study has practical significance due to recommendations and tools for adjusting regional energy policy based on the coordination of the predicted parameters for various participants in the energy supply process

Представление данных систем видеоаналитики в виде тепловых карт

Describes the method of presentation video analytics data collected for continues time in the form of heatmaps for analysis of the movement of human flows in accumulation sites. The scene is divided into zones where objects are counted. The counting results are stored in the data store with a specified periodicity. The heat map is based on matrix of counters of objects in specific areas of the scene. Over the matrix, the normalization operation is performed and, depending on the value of the elements, the color of the heat map areas is assigned based on the linear color gradient.Описание метода представления данных видеоаналитики за длительный промежуток времени в виде тепловых карт для анализа перемещения людских потоков в местах массового скопления. Сцена разбивается на зоны, в которых производится подсчёт объектов. Результаты подсчета с заданной периодичностью сохраняются в хранилище данных. Тепловая карта строится на основании матрицы счетчиков объектов, находящихся в конкретных областях сцены. Над матрицей производится операция нормирования и в зависимости от значения элементов на основании линейного градиента цвета назначается цвет областей тепловой карты

Прогностическая роль параметров жесткости артерий у пациентов с артериальной гипертензией, включая лиц с отягощенным анамнезом по инфаркту головного мозга

The article presents the information about the predictive significance of a complex approach in determining vascular wall stiffness parameters. A total of 159 people with arterial hypertension (AH) and AH after a previous ischemic stroke were examined. A model with a conditional linear predictor (LP) was constructed, using a binary regression equation with a probit-link function for prediction of cardiovascular events. LP is a combination of indicators such as age (А), glomerular filtration rate (CKD-EPI), pulse wave velocity (PWV), intima- media thickness (IMT), cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) and augmentation index (AI). The equation has the following form: LP = –6.6139 – 0.0978A + 0.031CKDEPI + 0.0758PWV + 3.2086IMT + 0.4421CAVI + 1.2429AI. The cut-off threshold for LP = 0.0238, sensitivity (Se) 85.71 %, specificity (Sp) 77 % and accuracy (Acc) 78.07 %.Представлены сведения о прогностической значимости комплексного подхода в определении параметров жесткости сосудистой стенки. Обследовано 159 человек с артериальной гипертензией (АГ) и с АГ после перенесенного ишемического инфаркта головного мозга. При помощи уравнения бинарной регрессии с пробитфункцией связи построена модель с условным линейным предиктором (ЛП), представляющим собой совокупность показателей возраста (В), скорости клубочковой фильтрации (CKD-EPI), скорости распространения пульсовой волны (СРПВ), толщины комплекса интима-медиа (КИМ), сердечно-лодыжечного сосудистого индекса (СЛСИ) и индекса аугментации (ИА) с целью составления прогноза в отношении сердечно-сосудистых событий. Уравнение имеет следующий вид: ЛП = –6,6139 – 0,0978В + 0,031CKD-EPI + 0,0758СРПВ + 3,2086КИМ + 0,4421СЛСИ + 1,2429ИА. Порог отсечения по ЛП = 0,0238, чувствительность (Se) 85,71 %, специфичность (Sp) 77,0 % и точность (Acc) 78,07 %